Market for Replenishing Missiles Provided to Ukraine

Global allies have provided Ukraine with more than $90 billion in security assistance since the beginning of the conflict. When it comes to providing equipment, aid has been in the form of second-hand inventory drawdowns and the procurement of newly produced systems to be sent to Ukrainian forces. While it is clear that the procurement of new goods for Ukraine increases global weapons demand in the short term, it is not always apparent that the drawdown of inventories creates a delayed, second wave of future demand as the donating countries eventually seek to replenish their stocks.

Tamarack Defense estimates that approximately $15 billion worth of munitions have been committed to the Ukrainian war effort thus far, with more than 85% of that amount coming from second-hand inventory drawdowns. Those inventory drawdowns generate backfilling efforts which drive added demand. This aid will significantly boost global munitions demand beyond our pre-Ukraine conflict forecast, and the impact wave will only grow larger with each subsequent package of munitions provided.