New Missile Programs in the United States

While many focus on the impact of the Ukraine conflict on the U.S. munitions market, it’s worth noting the other major tailwind driving future U.S. munitions production. Multiple new missile programs are nearing production ramp-ups, which will have significant impacts on the total new missiles spend by the DoD. These programs will potentially grow from less than $500M to account for over $10B a year in market value by the end of the decade.

Leading this wave of purchasing is the “Ground Based Strategic Deterrent” (GBSD or Sentinel) program, which will replace the ageing Minuteman III ICBMs, begin procurement in FY2026, and is estimated to cost over $60B through the lifetime of the procurement program. Intended for the new B-21 Raider and the B-52, the nuclear cruise missile “Long Range Standoff Weapon” (AGM-181) is on track for a production decision in 2027, which would increase annual funding to as much as $1.7B per year for the $13M missile. Additional new missiles on the horizon include the AIM-120 AMRAAM replacement “Joint Advanced Tactical Missile” and the ATACMS replacement “Precision Strike Missile” among others. Add to this the potential for hypersonic and or directed energy weapon system production, and the growth in U.S. production spending on new weapon systems looks inarguably strong.