F-35 Delivery Data

Tamarack Defense projects that F-35 production will have to exceed the program’s 156 aircraft/year goal in order to meet global demand.

Lockheed Martin has stated that F-35 deliveries this year (2023) will come in below the firm’s target of 147 to 153 aircraft. But Tamarack’s global F-35 survey demonstrates the need for deliveries to exceed 156 as soon as 2025. Beyond 2025, the unfactored skyline accelerates to 200 aircraft per year by the end of the decade.

While reaching a 200/year build rate is highly unlikely, it does represent a potential high-water scenario for the program – assuming potential orders are firmed up and the F-35 line is expanded.

Tamarack Defense’s in-house “P-weighted” forecast for the F-35, and 196 other platform types, is available now. We analyze each global campaign on an individual basis, and assign probability weightings based on all available information.